{"service":"prediction_divergence","version":"1.0","fetched_at":"2026-08-09T00:24:03.474234+00:00","confidence":1,"active_divergences":2,"high_significance":1,"regime":"DIVERGENT","divergences":{"btc_price":{"asset":"BTC/USD","polymarket":{"implied_price":65000,"median_price":65000,"entropy":0,"thresholds":11,"data_timestamp":"2026-08-08T23:58:05.918590+00:00"},"kalshi":{"implied_price":64882.56,"median_price":64988.89,"entropy":4.6938,"brackets":78,"window":"26AUG0917","active_brackets":16,"data_timestamp":"2026-08-09T00:03:39.248787+00:00"},"spread":-11.11,"spread_pct":-0.017,"direction":"polymarket_higher","significance":"low","note":"Spread between crypto-native (Polymarket) and regulated (Kalshi) prediction markets on same-day BTC price"},"fed":{"event":"FOMC rate decision","kalshi":{"meeting":"26SEP","prob_hold":0,"prob_cut":0.995,"data_timestamp":"2026-08-09T00:03:39.248787+00:00"},"polymarket":{"market_id":"fed_no_change_jul26","prob_hold":0.9995,"data_timestamp":"2026-07-29T19:40:36.187087+00:00"},"spread":-0.9995,"direction":"polymarket_more_hawkish","significance":"high","note":"Spread in hold probability between regulated and crypto-native prediction markets"}},"sources":{"kalshi":"regulated","polymarket":"crypto-native"},"note":"Preview — Ed25519 signed, data may be up to 60 minutes old.","preview":true,"preview_cached":true,"cache_max_age_minutes":60,"signed":true,"canonical":"v1|PREVIEW|/oracle/intel/prediction/divergence|1786235158|942220","signature":"a7bfe03c5adc754a09dd8b3bbedf2bf3d1aeeb0ebb02586dc3d15311c0a51468958e2a5e5d08cab10e69fd779664a7371d5919c2b51db4e6fedc705cc2b2ce03","pubkey":"f4f0e52b5f7b54831f965632bf1ebf72769beda4c4e3d36a593f7729ec812615","signingScheme":"ed25519","cache_age_minutes":16}