{"service":"prediction_divergence","version":"1.0","fetched_at":"2026-08-06T17:22:48.387933+00:00","confidence":1,"active_divergences":2,"high_significance":1,"regime":"DIVERGENT","divergences":{"btc_price":{"asset":"BTC/USD","polymarket":{"implied_price":65000,"median_price":65000,"entropy":0,"thresholds":11,"data_timestamp":"2026-08-06T17:17:19.261789+00:00"},"kalshi":{"implied_price":64425.71,"median_price":64713.08,"entropy":5.8064,"brackets":186,"window":"26AUG0614","active_brackets":12,"data_timestamp":"2026-08-06T17:18:21.804476+00:00"},"spread":-286.92,"spread_pct":-0.441,"direction":"polymarket_higher","significance":"moderate","note":"Spread between crypto-native (Polymarket) and regulated (Kalshi) prediction markets on same-day BTC price"},"fed":{"event":"FOMC rate decision","kalshi":{"meeting":"26SEP","prob_hold":0,"prob_cut":0.995,"data_timestamp":"2026-08-06T17:18:21.804476+00:00"},"polymarket":{"market_id":"fed_no_change_jul26","prob_hold":0.9995,"data_timestamp":"2026-07-29T19:40:36.187087+00:00"},"spread":-0.9995,"direction":"polymarket_more_hawkish","significance":"high","note":"Spread in hold probability between regulated and crypto-native prediction markets"}},"sources":{"kalshi":"regulated","polymarket":"crypto-native"},"note":"Preview — Ed25519 signed, data may be up to 60 minutes old.","preview":true,"preview_cached":true,"cache_max_age_minutes":60,"signed":true,"canonical":"v1|PREVIEW|/oracle/intel/prediction/divergence|1786036969|183986","signature":"9d8ef7aa6f46f021a27f9ad380556a6306fa9e79343bc9fc283b48d913f8487819925bf0812c90a535366f5749be7aba59a137299191d3ea2dcaeeb709b6fd0f","pubkey":"f4f0e52b5f7b54831f965632bf1ebf72769beda4c4e3d36a593f7729ec812615","signingScheme":"ed25519"}