{"service":"prediction_fed","version":"1.2","fetched_at":"2026-11-07T11:05:16.133127+00:00","data_timestamp":"2026-11-07T11:05:14.097604+00:00","data_age_s":2,"confidence":1,"current_rate_upper_bound":4,"current_rate_source":"fred:DFEDTARU","meetings":{"26DEC":{"meeting":"Dec 2026","meeting_code":"26DEC","implied_rate_pct":4.045,"expected_change_bp":4.5,"surprise":0.0453,"most_likely_range":"4.00-4.25%","most_likely_prob":0.7562,"prob_cut":0.02,"prob_hold":0.209,"prob_hike":0.7712,"entropy":1.0244,"sum_probability":1.0002,"anomaly_count":1,"total_volume_24h":10940.8,"total_liquidity":390854.61,"thresholds":11,"distribution":[{"range":"below 2.75%","probability":0.01},{"range":"3.00-3.25%","probability":0.005},{"range":"3.25-3.50%","probability":0.005},{"range":"3.75-4.00%","probability":0.209},{"range":"4.00-4.25%","probability":0.7562},{"range":"4.25-4.50%","probability":0.01},{"range":"5.25-5.50%","probability":0.005}]},"27JAN":{"meeting":"Jan 2027","meeting_code":"27JAN","implied_rate_pct":4.101,"expected_change_bp":10.1,"surprise":0.1014,"most_likely_range":"4.00-4.25%","most_likely_prob":0.7971,"prob_cut":0.0773,"prob_hold":0,"prob_hike":0.9228,"entropy":1.3707,"sum_probability":1.0001,"anomaly_count":6,"total_volume_24h":70.22,"total_liquidity":20195.1,"thresholds":25,"distribution":[{"range":"below 0.00%","probability":0.0145},{"range":"0.50-0.75%","probability":0.0097},{"range":"1.00-1.25%","probability":0.0048},{"range":"1.75-2.00%","probability":0.0145},{"range":"2.25-2.50%","probability":0.0097},{"range":"3.00-3.25%","probability":0.0048},{"range":"3.25-3.50%","probability":0.0193},{"range":"4.00-4.25%","probability":0.7971},{"range":"4.50-4.75%","probability":0.029},{"range":"4.75-5.00%","probability":0.0242},{"range":"5.00-5.25%","probability":0.0242},{"range":"6.00-6.25%","probability":0.0483}]},"27MAR":{"meeting":"Mar 2027","meeting_code":"27MAR","implied_rate_pct":4.164,"expected_change_bp":16.4,"surprise":0.1636,"most_likely_range":"4.25-4.50%","most_likely_prob":0.4319,"prob_cut":0.0893,"prob_hold":0,"prob_hike":0.9109,"entropy":2.2908,"sum_probability":1.0002,"anomaly_count":8,"total_volume_24h":35.49,"total_liquidity":28835.67,"thresholds":25,"distribution":[{"range":"below 0.00%","probability":0.0282},{"range":"0.75-1.00%","probability":0.0047},{"range":"1.25-1.50%","probability":0.0047},{"range":"1.50-1.75%","probability":0.0141},{"range":"2.25-2.50%","probability":0.0188},{"range":"3.25-3.50%","probability":0.0141},{"range":"3.50-3.75%","probability":0.0047},{"range":"4.00-4.25%","probability":0.2911},{"range":"4.25-4.50%","probability":0.4319},{"range":"4.50-4.75%","probability":0.1221},{"range":"4.75-5.00%","probability":0.0282},{"range":"5.75-6.00%","probability":0.0047},{"range":"6.00-6.25%","probability":0.0329}]},"27APR":{"meeting":"Apr 2027","meeting_code":"27APR","implied_rate_pct":4.582,"expected_change_bp":58.2,"surprise":0.582,"most_likely_range":"6.00-6.25%","most_likely_prob":0.277,"prob_cut":0.094,"prob_hold":0.2582,"prob_hike":0.6481,"entropy":3.018,"sum_probability":1.0003,"anomaly_count":7,"total_volume_24h":0.4,"total_liquidity":39125.03,"thresholds":25,"distribution":[{"range":"below 0.00%","probability":0.0235},{"range":"0.25-0.50%","probability":0.0094},{"range":"0.75-1.00%","probability":0.0141},{"range":"1.75-2.00%","probability":0.0047},{"range":"2.25-2.50%","probability":0.0141},{"range":"2.50-2.75%","probability":0.0141},{"range":"3.00-3.25%","probability":0.0141},{"range":"3.75-4.00%","probability":0.2582},{"range":"4.00-4.25%","probability":0.0423},{"range":"4.25-4.50%","probability":0.1737},{"range":"4.50-4.75%","probability":0.0094},{"range":"4.75-5.00%","probability":0.0423},{"range":"5.00-5.25%","probability":0.0282},{"range":"5.25-5.50%","probability":0.0329},{"range":"5.50-5.75%","probability":0.0282},{"range":"5.75-6.00%","probability":0.0141},{"range":"6.00-6.25%","probability":0.277}]},"27JUN":{"meeting":"Jun 2027","meeting_code":"27JUN","implied_rate_pct":3.97,"expected_change_bp":-3,"surprise":-0.0298,"most_likely_range":"6.00-6.25%","most_likely_prob":0.2231,"prob_cut":0.3269,"prob_hold":0,"prob_hike":0.6733,"entropy":3.4072,"sum_probability":1.0002,"anomaly_count":5,"total_volume_24h":0,"total_liquidity":32479.01,"thresholds":25,"distribution":[{"range":"below 0.00%","probability":0.0637},{"range":"0.25-0.50%","probability":0.0996},{"range":"0.50-0.75%","probability":0.008},{"range":"1.00-1.25%","probability":0.008},{"range":"1.25-1.50%","probability":0.004},{"range":"1.50-1.75%","probability":0.008},{"range":"1.75-2.00%","probability":0.004},{"range":"2.00-2.25%","probability":0.012},{"range":"2.25-2.50%","probability":0.008},{"range":"2.50-2.75%","probability":0.008},{"range":"3.50-3.75%","probability":0.1036},{"range":"4.00-4.25%","probability":0.0518},{"range":"4.25-4.50%","probability":0.1753},{"range":"4.50-4.75%","probability":0.1116},{"range":"4.75-5.00%","probability":0.0319},{"range":"5.00-5.25%","probability":0.0398},{"range":"5.50-5.75%","probability":0.0159},{"range":"5.75-6.00%","probability":0.0239},{"range":"6.00-6.25%","probability":0.2231}]},"27JUL":{"meeting":"Jul 2027","meeting_code":"27JUL","implied_rate_pct":3.924,"expected_change_bp":-7.6,"surprise":-0.0756,"most_likely_range":"6.00-6.25%","most_likely_prob":0.275,"prob_cut":0.335,"prob_hold":0.035,"prob_hike":0.63,"entropy":3.6031,"sum_probability":1,"anomaly_count":0,"total_volume_24h":0,"total_liquidity":62,"thresholds":25,"distribution":[{"range":"below 0.00%","probability":0.185},{"range":"0.25-0.50%","probability":0.005},{"range":"0.50-0.75%","probability":0.01},{"range":"1.00-1.25%","probability":0.01},{"range":"1.25-1.50%","probability":0.005},{"range":"1.50-1.75%","probability":0.01},{"range":"1.75-2.00%","probability":0.005},{"range":"2.00-2.25%","probability":0.015},{"range":"2.25-2.50%","probability":0.01},{"range":"2.50-2.75%","probability":0.01},{"range":"3.00-3.25%","probability":0.015},{"range":"3.25-3.50%","probability":0.02},{"range":"3.50-3.75%","probability":0.035},{"range":"3.75-4.00%","probability":0.035},{"range":"4.00-4.25%","probability":0.04},{"range":"4.25-4.50%","probability":0.085},{"range":"4.50-4.75%","probability":0.06},{"range":"4.75-5.00%","probability":0.035},{"range":"5.00-5.25%","probability":0.03},{"range":"5.25-5.50%","probability":0.035},{"range":"5.50-5.75%","probability":0.035},{"range":"5.75-6.00%","probability":0.035},{"range":"6.00-6.25%","probability":0.275}]},"27SEP":{"meeting":"Sep 2027","meeting_code":"27SEP","implied_rate_pct":3.981,"expected_change_bp":-1.9,"surprise":-0.0188,"most_likely_range":"5.75-6.00%","most_likely_prob":0.21,"prob_cut":0.345,"prob_hold":0.02,"prob_hike":0.635,"entropy":3.5031,"sum_probability":1,"anomaly_count":0,"total_volume_24h":0,"total_liquidity":10767,"thresholds":25,"distribution":[{"range":"below 0.00%","probability":0.18},{"range":"0.25-0.50%","probability":0.005},{"range":"0.50-0.75%","probability":0.01},{"range":"1.00-1.25%","probability":0.005},{"range":"3.00-3.25%","probability":0.09},{"range":"3.25-3.50%","probability":0.025},{"range":"3.50-3.75%","probability":0.03},{"range":"3.75-4.00%","probability":0.02},{"range":"4.00-4.25%","probability":0.04},{"range":"4.25-4.50%","probability":0.07},{"range":"4.50-4.75%","probability":0.04},{"range":"4.75-5.00%","probability":0.07},{"range":"5.00-5.25%","probability":0.03},{"range":"5.25-5.50%","probability":0.035},{"range":"5.50-5.75%","probability":0.03},{"range":"5.75-6.00%","probability":0.21},{"range":"6.00-6.25%","probability":0.11}]},"27OCT":{"meeting":"Oct 2027","meeting_code":"27OCT","implied_rate_pct":4.084,"expected_change_bp":8.4,"surprise":0.0843,"most_likely_range":"4.25-4.50%","most_likely_prob":0.2124,"prob_cut":0.3167,"prob_hold":0,"prob_hike":0.6835,"entropy":3.2919,"sum_probability":1.0002,"anomaly_count":2,"total_volume_24h":0,"total_liquidity":24437,"thresholds":25,"distribution":[{"range":"below 0.00%","probability":0.0386},{"range":"0.00-0.25%","probability":0.1004},{"range":"0.25-0.50%","probability":0.0039},{"range":"0.50-0.75%","probability":0.0077},{"range":"1.00-1.25%","probability":0.0039},{"range":"3.50-3.75%","probability":0.1622},{"range":"4.00-4.25%","probability":0.0656},{"range":"4.25-4.50%","probability":0.2124},{"range":"4.50-4.75%","probability":0.0309},{"range":"4.75-5.00%","probability":0.0541},{"range":"5.00-5.25%","probability":0.0232},{"range":"5.25-5.50%","probability":0.027},{"range":"5.50-5.75%","probability":0.0232},{"range":"5.75-6.00%","probability":0.1622},{"range":"6.00-6.25%","probability":0.0849}]},"27DEC":{"meeting":"Dec 2027","meeting_code":"27DEC","implied_rate_pct":4.285,"expected_change_bp":28.5,"surprise":0.2854,"most_likely_range":"5.75-6.00%","most_likely_prob":0.1765,"prob_cut":0.2353,"prob_hold":0,"prob_hike":0.7648,"entropy":3.2351,"sum_probability":1.0001,"anomaly_count":2,"total_volume_24h":104,"total_liquidity":86170.58,"thresholds":25,"distribution":[{"range":"below 0.00%","probability":0.1211},{"range":"0.25-0.50%","probability":0.0035},{"range":"0.50-0.75%","probability":0.0069},{"range":"1.00-1.25%","probability":0.0035},{"range":"3.25-3.50%","probability":0.0865},{"range":"3.50-3.75%","probability":0.0138},{"range":"4.00-4.25%","probability":0.0554},{"range":"4.25-4.50%","probability":0.1626},{"range":"4.50-4.75%","probability":0.0277},{"range":"4.75-5.00%","probability":0.0381},{"range":"5.00-5.25%","probability":0.0969},{"range":"5.25-5.50%","probability":0.1661},{"range":"5.75-6.00%","probability":0.1765},{"range":"6.00-6.25%","probability":0.0415}]},"28JAN":{"meeting":"Jan 2028","meeting_code":"28JAN","implied_rate_pct":4.004,"expected_change_bp":0.4,"surprise":0.0038,"most_likely_range":"5.75-6.00%","most_likely_prob":0.21,"prob_cut":0.345,"prob_hold":0.03,"prob_hike":0.625,"entropy":3.4148,"sum_probability":1,"anomaly_count":0,"total_volume_24h":0,"total_liquidity":211,"thresholds":25,"distribution":[{"range":"below 0.00%","probability":0.18},{"range":"0.25-0.50%","probability":0.005},{"range":"0.50-0.75%","probability":0.01},{"range":"1.00-1.25%","probability":0.005},{"range":"3.25-3.50%","probability":0.125},{"range":"3.50-3.75%","probability":0.02},{"range":"3.75-4.00%","probability":0.03},{"range":"4.00-4.25%","probability":0.035},{"range":"4.25-4.50%","probability":0.065},{"range":"4.50-4.75%","probability":0.04},{"range":"4.75-5.00%","probability":0.055},{"range":"5.00-5.25%","probability":0.035},{"range":"5.25-5.50%","probability":0.045},{"range":"5.50-5.75%","probability":0.03},{"range":"5.75-6.00%","probability":0.21},{"range":"6.00-6.25%","probability":0.11}]}},"fed_consensus":{"kalshi_hold":0.209,"polymarket_hold":0.9995,"spread":0.7905,"note":"Spread between regulated (Kalshi) and crypto-native (Polymarket) prediction markets"},"polymarket":{"fed_no_change_jul26":{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.9995,"volume_24h":7782271.372841997},"fed_hike_25_jul26":{"question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.0005,"volume_24h":3378823.6676060017},"fed_hike_50_jul26":{"question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?","probability":0.0005,"volume_24h":5124772.295396}},"sources":{"kalshi":{"markets":236,"method":"cumulative_threshold_differencing"},"polymarket":{"markets":3,"status":"active"}},"preview":true,"meeting_count":10,"note":"Preview. Signature covers data_timestamp, current_rate_upper_bound, confidence, meeting_count. Per-meeting distributions (meetings) and consensus unsigned. Data may be up to 24 hours old.","canonical":"v1|FED-PREVIEW|2026-11-07T11:05:14.097604+00:00|4.0|1.0|10","signature":"fe06e8935780a3d46fb07e5195de44b8298e525aa6191ed5aef51a8e3362f4ceb88bb3729e89fde8b8cec4979a9a15f89e3f051955ea7c153a4c038fd321bc09","pubkey":"7ab07fbe7d08cd16823e5eb0db0e21f3f38e9366d5fd00d14e95df0fb9b51a1a","signingScheme":"ed25519","signed":true,"preview_cached":true,"cache_age_minutes":38}